Revenue Projections
We’re not just another bar or coffee shop—we’re a flexible, hybrid space designed to maximize usage throughout the day. From morning coffee to evening pours, every hour is optimized to reduce downtime, increase revenue reliability, and deliver consistent value to our guests.
Our model is built for long-term resilience. By offering high perceived value at a relatively low cost per visit, we create an experience that remains attractive and accessible—even during economic downturns.
Design is central to the guest experience. Our space is intentionally curated to feel like a second home: warm, polished, and effortlessly comfortable for friends, professionals, and families alike.
We’re powered by technology. From mobile ordering and seamless check-ins to dynamic event scheduling and AI tools for customized visitor touches, our tech-first approach drives operational efficiency and makes every guest interaction smoother and smarter.
Community is at our heart. With weekly family programming, seasonal events, and intentional partnerships with local organizations, we foster connection and make our space a trusted hub for neighbors to gather and grow together.
Our membership model deepens engagement. Members enjoy early access to events, preferred seating, and exclusive perks that reward loyalty and build a strong sense of belonging—transforming occasional guests into invested regulars.
Guest Behavior
Generating first-time visitors through social media and digital marketing will be critical to early exposure. From that point on, events programming, community building, and elevated experiences will keep visitors coming back time and time again.
First Timers: We expect roughly 65% of visitors to visit once or twice per year, spending $22 on average.
Regulars: We expect roughly 25% of visitors to visit 12 times per year, spending $25 on average per visit.
Members: We expect roughly 10% of visitors to visit 24 times per year, spending $25 on average per visit.
Conversion: Robust programming offering coupled with superior visitor experience will help convert first timers into regulars. Attractive membership perks and community bonding will covert regulars into members. Many of these expected averages are just slightly above industry norms.
Project P&L
Projected revenue based upon aggressive costs structures & conservative revenue generation.
$3.5 million annually or $293,000 per month.
Revenue of $835 per square foot.
Annual COGS projected at 35% of revenue.
Annual Labor costs projected at 30% of revenue.
Annual Ops costs projected at 22% of revenue.
Generates monthly profitability of $45,000 or $540,000 annually.
Is our projected visitor count reasonable?
Yes. Based on comparable foot traffic from similar hybrid concepts in high-density Southern California markets, our projections are grounded in a realistic 10-mile service radius. A popular central location, combined with our all-day format (coffee, food, craft beverages), positions us to attract a diverse mix of professionals, families, and social groups. We’re not relying on outliers—we’re capturing regular behavior in an area with high discretionary spend and few direct competitors offering this experience.
Is our projected spend per visitor reasonable?
Yes. With a thoughtfully curated menu and a seamless tech-forward ordering experience, our average check size is modeled on actual benchmarks from successful coffee shops, taprooms, and fast casual spots in the area. Morning visits average $9–$12 per guest, afternoon and evening visits range from $14–$22, with even higher per-head averages during member events or social hours. Our layered revenue—from coffee to craft beer to food—drives sustainable, profitable spend without requiring premium pricing.
How will we establish and maintain customer loyalty?
We’re building a true “third place” that feels like a second living room—especially for elder millennial families. Our loyalty strategy is built around three pillars:
1. Membership — Exclusive perks and access for our most engaged guests.
2. Programming — Recurring events for families, professionals, and hobbyists to keep them coming back.
3. Community-first culture — A staff trained to recognize regulars and a space designed to welcome everyone. This is not just transactional—it’s emotional and habitual.
What is our plan to manage variable costs of goods sold?
Our menu is built around efficiency. Shared ingredients, minimal prep complexity, and smart vendor partnerships allow us to keep COGS low while delivering quality. We’ve deliberately avoided a full kitchen setup, reducing overhead and waste. Our POS and ordering tech provide real-time inventory insights, enabling quick pricing or menu adjustments as needed. This gives us strong gross margin control, even as prices shift in the market.
When adding in operating expenses, does this business model work?
Yes. We’ve modeled Lincoln Lounge with a disciplined eye toward lean operations. Our industrial-minimalist design minimizes buildout and maintenance costs. Our service model—tech-enabled and counter-based—keeps labor efficient while still feeling premium. The space is multi-use from open to close, meaning more revenue per square foot. Even after factoring in rent, payroll, marketing, and debt service, we maintain healthy profit margins—especially as membership and recurring traffic scale.
Comparison to adjacent businesses
The most widely available comparison metric to similar locations is through annual revenue. We feel the below comparisons represent a fair cross section of market trends.
Little to no public data exists on spend per visitor or visitor per day metrics. However, in anecdotal research, we feel confident in the visitor count and average spend numbers across our revenue model.
Coffee Shops
Starbucks – $1.8m avg anl rev
Dunkin – $930k avg anl rev
Fast Casual Restaurants
Raisin Canes – $4.9m avg anl rev
Shake Shack – $3.7m avg anl rev
Brewery Taprooms
YardHouse – $8.3m avg anl rev
Brewdog – $3.1m avg anl rev
The Lincoln Lounge has no direct comparison, as it sits at the intersection of fast casual service, café culture, and brewery environment. We expect to see higher spend per visitor than a traditional coffee shop due to our expanded menu offering for lunch and dinner hours. We expected fewer visitors than a fast casual restaurant due to our focused environment for extended visits. We expect to see more visitors but lower spend than a traditional brewery taproom due to our expanded community offerings but limited food menu.
Addressable Market
The Lincoln Lounge serves a broad audience beyond just families, including professionals, social groups, remote workers, and craft beverage enthusiasts. By expanding beyond strictly “family-friendly” venues, we capture a wider segment of the Southern California hospitality market—one driven by high discretionary spending, premium experiences, and community-oriented spaces.
Why This Market Matters
The Lincoln Lounge isn’t just competing with traditional coffee shops or breweries—it’s filling a high-value gap in the market by blending premium hospitality, flexible social spaces, and an experience-driven model. By capturing demand from multiple consumer groups, we create a business model that is adaptable, scalable, and positioned for long-term success in the evolving hospitality industry.
Demographics
- Primarily 30–50 years old (elder Millennials & Gen X).
- A mix of young families, professionals without children, and social groups.
- $100,000+ annually, with a strong discretionary spending capacity.
Values
- Seek spaces that foster community, social connection, and quality experiences
- Prioritize comfort and ambiance over generic, mass-market venues
- Support local businesses and premium hospitality offerings
Interests & Behaviors
- Craft beverage enthusiasts—from third-wave coffee lovers to craft beer and zero-proof drink fans
- Young professionals & social groups seeking a sophisticated but approachable meeting spot
- Experience-driven consumers who enjoy well-curated food, drink, and event offerings
- Tech-savvy individuals who prefer mobile ordering, digital menus, and frictionless service
